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►Finance and economics： The yuan joins the SDR Maiden voyage

財(cái)經(jīng)：人民幣“入藍(lán)”，軟妹幣的“第一次”

Reserve-currency status might make for a weaker yuan.

儲(chǔ)幣地位或令人民幣貶值。

PASSING through the Suez Canal became easier earlier this year， thanks to an expansion completed in August.

由于蘇伊士運(yùn)河已于八月擴(kuò)建完畢，從今年早些時(shí)候起，渡過(guò)運(yùn)河變得容易了許多。

Now it is about to become a little bit more complicated.

現(xiàn)在它的結(jié)構(gòu)變得更為復(fù)雜了。

Transit fees for the canal are denominated in Special Drawing Rights， a basket of currencies used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as its unit of account.

該運(yùn)河的過(guò)境費(fèi)是以國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的特別提款權(quán)作為計(jì)價(jià)的——它是以一攬子貨幣作為其記賬單位的。

This week the IMF decided to include the yuan in the basket from next year， joining the dollar， the euro， the pound and the yen.

本周，IMF決定從明年起接納人民幣“入籃”，“籃子”里已有的貨幣包括美元、歐元、英鎊和日元。

If lots of things were priced in SDRs， the IMF's decision would have forced companies around the world to buy yuan-denominated assets as soon as possible， to hedge their exposure.

因?yàn)樵S多事務(wù)都是以特別提款權(quán)作為定價(jià)的，IMF的決定迫使全球許多公司要盡快地購(gòu)買(mǎi)以人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的資產(chǎn)，以此來(lái)對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

That would have prompted China's currency to strengthen dramatically.

這將促使人民幣大幅升值。

But few goods or services are priced in SDRs.

但是很少有商品或是服務(wù)是以特別提款權(quán)作為定價(jià)的。

Instead， admission to the currency club is significant mainly for its symbolism： the IMF is lending its imprimatur to the yuan as a reserve currency—a safe， liquid asset in which governments can park their wealth.

相反，加入貨幣俱樂(lè)部更多地具有象征意義：IMF正式批準(zhǔn)人民幣成為一種儲(chǔ)備貨幣——使其成為一種可令各國(guó)政府安心寄放的安全、流動(dòng)的資產(chǎn)。

Indeed， far from setting off a groundswell of demand for the yuan， the IMF's decision may pave the way for its depreciation.

事實(shí)上，IMF的決定可能事與愿違，會(huì)令對(duì)人民幣高漲的需求降溫，使人民幣貶值。

The reason is that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will now find itself under more pressure to manage the yuan as central banks in most rich economies do their currencies—by letting market forces determine their value.

原因是中國(guó)人民銀行(PBOC)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己將承受更大的壓力來(lái)管控人民幣，如同世界上大多數(shù)富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體的央行管控它們的貨幣一樣——由市場(chǎng)來(lái)決定貨幣的價(jià)值。

In bringing the yuan into the SDR， the IMF had to determine that it is “freely usable”.

人民幣“入藍(lán)”，IMF必須確定它是能“自由使用”的。

Before coming to this decision， the IMF asked China to make changes to its currency regime.

在做出決定之前，IMF會(huì)要求中國(guó)政府改變其現(xiàn)有是匯率機(jī)制。

Most importantly， China has now tied the yuan's exchange rate at the start of daily trading to the previous day's close; in the past the starting quote was in effect set at the whim of the PBOC， often creating a big gap with the value at which it last traded.

最重要的是，中國(guó)現(xiàn)行的每日匯率其開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)是與前一交易日的收盤(pán)價(jià)相掛鉤的。而之前的開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)事實(shí)上是由中國(guó)央行任意確定的，往往會(huì)與最終交易價(jià)產(chǎn)生較大差價(jià)。

It was the elimination of this gap that lay behind the yuan's 2% devaluation in August， a move that rattled global markets.

為了消除這一差價(jià)，八月時(shí)人民幣貶值2%，此舉曾令全球市場(chǎng)驚愕不已。

Though the yuan is still far from being a free-floating currency—the central bank has intervened since August to prop it up—the cost of such intervention is now higher.

然而人民幣離成為自由浮動(dòng)貨幣為時(shí)尚早——自八月以來(lái)中國(guó)央行開(kāi)始進(jìn)行干預(yù)支持，目前這種干預(yù)成本變得更高了。

The PBOC must spend real money during the trading day to guide the yuan to its desired level.

中國(guó)央行必須把錢(qián)花在刀刃上，用以指導(dǎo)人民幣的交易價(jià)維持在其期許值以內(nèi)。

Inclusion in the SDR will only deepen the expectations that China will let market forces decide the yuan's exchange rate.

納入特別提款權(quán)只會(huì)加深中國(guó)想讓市場(chǎng)來(lái)決定人民幣匯率的期許。

The point of the SDR is to weave disparate currencies together into a single， diversified unit; some have suggested， for example， that commodities be quoted in SDRs to reduce the volatility of pricing them in dollars.

特別提款權(quán)將不同的貨幣交織成為一種單一、多元的計(jì)價(jià)單位;比如說(shuō)，有人建議將商品引入特別提款權(quán)以減少因美元波動(dòng)而影響其價(jià)格。

But if China maintains its de facto peg to the dollar， the result of adding the yuan to the SDR will be to boost the dollar's weight in the basket， defeating the point.

但如果中國(guó)要是繼續(xù)緊盯美元不放，那么人民幣“入藍(lán)”將會(huì)令美元幣值暴增，一家獨(dú)大，打破“籃子”里原有的平衡。

What would happen if China really did give the market the last word on the yuan?

如果中國(guó)真的給了人民幣踏入市場(chǎng)前的臨行忠告，那么將會(huì)發(fā)生什么呢?

For some time it has been under downward pressure.

人民幣將會(huì)有一段時(shí)間的下行壓力。

The simplest yardstick is the decline in China's foreign-exchange reserves， from a peak of nearly $4 trillion last year to just over $3.5 trillion now—a reflection， in part， of the PBOC's selling of dollars to support the yuan.

最簡(jiǎn)單的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)就是中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備在下降，從去年頂峰時(shí)的4萬(wàn)億美元到如今的勉強(qiáng)3.5萬(wàn)億美元——這就是反應(yīng)。某種程度上，中國(guó)央行在拋售美元來(lái)支撐人民幣。

Were it not for tighter capital controls since the summer， outflows might have been even bigger.

若不是今夏以來(lái)更為嚴(yán)格的資金管控，恐怕外流的外匯會(huì)更多。

And the yuan does look overvalued.

人民幣被高估了。

Despite China's slowing economy， its continued link to the surging dollar has put it near an all-time high in trade-weighted terms， up by more than 13% in the past 18 months.

盡管中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，但人民幣繼續(xù)與飆升的美元相掛鉤，使其接近了貿(mào)易加權(quán)計(jì)算的歷史高位，在過(guò)去的18個(gè)月里，同比增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)13%。

With the Federal Reserve gearing up to start raising interest rates at the same time as China is loosening its monetary policy， the yuan looks likely to come under more downward pressure， at least against the dollar.

在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加緊啟動(dòng)提高利率的同時(shí)，中國(guó)放松了其貨幣政策，人民幣兌美元可能至少會(huì)承受更多的下行壓力。

It would be foolhardy to predict that China will suddenly give the market free rein.

中國(guó)會(huì)突然給市場(chǎng)以自由發(fā)揮的空間可能是魯莽的預(yù)測(cè)。

That would go against its deep-seated preference for gradual reform.

那將會(huì)違背中國(guó)進(jìn)行漸進(jìn)式深入改革的偏好。

But while basking in the glow of its SDR status， China must also be aware of the responsibility to minimise intervention that comes with it.

但沉浸于特別提款權(quán)的榮光中，中國(guó)必須意識(shí)到對(duì)人民幣干預(yù)最小化的責(zé)任也隨之而來(lái)了。

A weaker yuan may well be the result.

其結(jié)果可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)人民幣貶值。

1.thanks to 多虧;由于

例句：I have given thanks to God for delivering me from that pain.

我感謝上帝把我從那種痛苦中拯救出來(lái)。

2.be aware of 意識(shí)到

例句：Be aware of the terrible strain it can put on a child when you expect the best reports

在期待孩子能取得最好成績(jī)時(shí)，要當(dāng)心這會(huì)給他們帶來(lái)可怕的壓力。

3.monetary policy 貨幣政策

例句：Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.

一些國(guó)家實(shí)行緊縮銀根的貨幣政策，以避免通貨膨脹。

4.foreign-exchange reserves 外匯儲(chǔ)備

例句：China's foreign-exchange reserves are about to hit one trillion dollars.

中國(guó)的外匯貯備將達(dá)一萬(wàn)億美元。