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►The American economy：Can the Trump boom last?

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)：特朗普的繁榮能持久嗎?

America's president is not the architect of American strength.But in the short term， things will go his way.

特朗普不是美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)的造就者。但是，短期內(nèi)，事態(tài)是被限定在走他的路上面的。

There is often more fakery than truth in a tweet from President Donald Trump.

特朗普的推文中經(jīng)常是假的多于真的。

But on one subject he is broadly right.

但是，在一個(gè)問(wèn)題上，他總的來(lái)說(shuō)是對(duì)的。

America's economy is in good shape.

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)事態(tài)良好。

Business confidence is high.

商業(yè)信心高亢。

Jobs are plentiful.

就業(yè)崗位充裕。

Last month non-farm companies added 228000 workers to their payrolls.

上個(gè)月，非農(nóng)公司給它們的工資單上增加了228000名工人。

The unemployment rate is 4.1%，the lowest figure for more than a decade.

失業(yè)率是4.1%，為十多年來(lái)的最低數(shù)字。

The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force.

工作之可得正在吸引越來(lái)越多的勞動(dòng)適齡人口加入勞動(dòng)大軍。

Wages are growing in real terms with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers.

按照實(shí)際水平計(jì)算，工資正在增長(zhǎng)，其中最大的所得流向了低工資工人。

Mr Trump over-eggs things，of course.

特朗普當(dāng)然是要反復(fù)吹噓啦。

He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his own achievement.

他聲稱(chēng)，每一份靚麗的就業(yè)報(bào)告和標(biāo)普500的每一次新高都是他的功勞。

In fact，he was lucky in his inheritance.

事實(shí)上，在遺產(chǎn)方面，他是幸運(yùn)的。

The market has risen by 25% since his election，but is up by 195% since 2009.

自他當(dāng)選以來(lái)，市場(chǎng)上漲了25%，但是自2009年以來(lái)上漲了195%。

The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7% under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump's watch.

在奧巴馬治下，失業(yè)率從高峰時(shí)的10%降到了4.7%。之后，在特朗普監(jiān)護(hù)中，又降到了4.1%。

His administration says that a mix of deregulation and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustained GDP growth of 3%，well above the 2% average of recent years.

他的政府表示，去監(jiān)管和消減企業(yè)稅的結(jié)合將激發(fā)出持續(xù)的3%的GDP增長(zhǎng)，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于這幾年2%的平均水平。

As the economy approaches full employment，an astonishing pickup in productivity would be needed to accomplish that.

隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)接近完全就業(yè)，為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，生產(chǎn)力方面某種令人吃驚的改善是事所必需的了。

But Trump-bashers overstate their case,too.

但是，特朗普的批評(píng)者也是言過(guò)其實(shí)了。

They dismiss the optimism of consumers and bosses as sentiment，not substance.

他們不把消費(fèi)者和雇主的樂(lè)觀當(dāng)回事，認(rèn)為那不過(guò)是一種情緒而已，并非是實(shí)實(shí)在在的。

They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously overvalued and that America's expansion，which is in its 102nd month，must soon falter.

他們警告說(shuō)，股市被危險(xiǎn)地高估了，正處于第102個(gè)月之中的美國(guó)擴(kuò)張不久必將舉步維艱。

Yet the economy is not in immediate danger.

然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)體并非處于迫在眉睫的危險(xiǎn)之中。

And the maturity of the business cycle cuts both ways.

而且，商業(yè)周期的成熟把這兩種情況都排除了。

It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump's claims to be the author of American economic success.

特朗普有關(guān)他是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)成功造就者的說(shuō)法純屬胡說(shuō)八道。

But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises.

但是，經(jīng)濟(jì)體出現(xiàn)某些受歡迎的驚喜也是有可能的。

America is not the only economy doing well.

美國(guó)不是唯一運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

For about a year，a synchronised global expansion，taking in Europe，Asia and the Americas，has been under way.

一年來(lái)，發(fā)生在歐洲、亞洲和美洲的某種步調(diào)一致的全球擴(kuò)張一直都在進(jìn)行之中。

GDP growth in the euro zone，a region until recently synonymous with economic misery，is around 2.5%，despite slower population growth than America's.

在直到最近都是經(jīng)濟(jì)窘境代名詞的歐元區(qū)，GDP增長(zhǎng)在2.5%左右，盡管其人口增長(zhǎng)慢于美國(guó)。

But America stands out because of where it is in the cycle.

但是，美國(guó)的一枝獨(dú)秀是因?yàn)樗�正處于擴(kuò)張周期中。

If it continues in 2018，this expansion will become the country's second-longest ever.

倘若這一周期在2018年繼續(xù)下去，這次的擴(kuò)張將成為該國(guó)史上的第二長(zhǎng)時(shí)間擴(kuò)張。

True，there are perils.

誠(chéng)然，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是存在的。

As the business cycle matures，there is more chance that the economy will overheat，because of bottlenecks in the jobs market;

隨著商業(yè)周期走到頭，由于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的瓶頸，經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)過(guò)熱的可能性越來(lái)越大;

or that the central bank overtightens in order to prevent things from running too hot.

為防止事態(tài)過(guò)熱，央行過(guò)度收緊的可能性也越來(lái)越大。

The longer the economy keeps growing，moreover，the more scope there is for financial imbalances，such as excess debt or frothy asset prices， to build up.

經(jīng)濟(jì)體越長(zhǎng)時(shí)間地保持增長(zhǎng)，過(guò)度債務(wù)或者是泡沫化的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格等金融失衡逐步累積的空間就越大。

Some warning signals are flashing.

一些警示信號(hào)正在閃爍。

The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed，as it tends to before recessions.

長(zhǎng)短利率差已經(jīng)如其在危機(jī)之前常常好出現(xiàn)的那樣縮小。

Yet the evidence for overheating is thin.

然而，過(guò)熱的證據(jù)是貧乏的。

Inflation has trended lower this year.

今年以來(lái)，通脹一路走低。

Wage growth has picked up a little，thankfully，but shows few signs of accelerating.

好在工資增長(zhǎng)有所抬頭，但沒(méi)有顯現(xiàn)出多少加速的跡象。

Pay would have to increase by quite a lot more before rising inflation is a real worry.

工資支付不得不在日漸上升的通脹之前大幅增長(zhǎng)是一個(gè)確切的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

1.interest rates 利率

例句：High interest rates have stunted economic growth.

高利率已經(jīng)阻礙了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。

2.picked up 撿起;收拾

例句：I picked up the phone book and glanced through it.

我拿起電話(huà)簿，匆匆掃了一遍。

3.Wage growth 工資增長(zhǎng)

例句：Wage growth is moderate everywhere，in spite of tight labour markets.

盡管勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)緊張，但全球各國(guó)的工資增長(zhǎng)頗為溫和。

4.in order to 為了

例句：In order to transform their environment，he drew up the project with painstaking accuracy.

為了改造環(huán)境，他苦心孤詣地制訂了這個(gè)計(jì)劃。